Sunday Night Football brings a Week 1 rematch—and a crowded touchdown market
anytime touchdown props from kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET.
For newer bettors, an anytime TD means a player must score a rushing, receiving, or return touchdown at any time in regulation or overtime. Passing touchdowns don’t count for the quarterback who throws them—only the player who catches or carries the ball across the goal line. It’s a simple bet to track on TV, but the pricing bakes in a lot of uncertainty. Touchdowns are volatile by nature, so shopping lines and understanding usage go a long way.
Layer the context: both teams are led by dual-threat quarterbacks—Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen—who siphon red-zone opportunities with designed keepers and scrambles. That depresses prices for other position players at the top of the board and can create pockets of value down the sheet for receivers and rotational backs. The Bills were bottom-10 last season in both passing yards and receiving yards allowed, while Baltimore’s ground game finished behind an offensive line Pro Football Focus graded No. 1 in run blocking. When you combine those two profiles with a high total, you get a betting menu full of plausible scorers—and very different paths to get there.
Weather in Orchard Park can swing markets, but early-week pricing reflects neutral conditions. If wind or rain pops up closer to kickoff, you’ll likely see adjustments that tilt toward the ground game and suppress receiver odds. Keep an eye on actives and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff as well; a single lineup change often moves multiple player markets.
Player-by-player odds picture: Henry headlines, Bateman’s price pops, Bills backs tempt
Derrick Henry sits atop most boards as the shortest-priced Raven for Week 1. He’s been dealing in touchdowns for years, and last season he tied for the league lead with 16 rushing scores. Books are pricing him around -154 to score, which implies roughly a 60–61% probability. The case is straightforward: Baltimore’s line clears space, Henry dominates near the stripe, and he logged 20 rushing attempts inside the five-yard line in 2024—second-most in the league. That’s the lifeblood of an anytime TD ticket.
The matchup notes don’t hurt, either. In last year’s Week 4 meeting, Henry ripped Buffalo for 199 yards and two scores at 8.3 yards per carry. The Bills’ run defense never really solved power looks, ending 2024 ranked 31st in defensive rushing efficiency. Unless Buffalo’s front tightens up immediately in Week 1, Henry’s blend of volume and goal-line preference puts him in that “chalk for a reason” tier. If you’re curious about escalators, some books have two or more touchdowns for Henry in the +360 range—an implied probability under 22%, which underscores the gap between likely and possible.
Rashod Bateman is the mid-range price that keeps popping in models and human handicaps alike. You’ll find him in the +250 to +270 band depending on the book, which implies a 27–29% chance he scores. Bateman put together a true step-forward 2024: nine regular-season touchdowns and two more in the playoffs, including a big one against Buffalo in January. He did damage in the red area—five of those nine regular-season scores came in that compressed part of the field—which is exactly where Baltimore often stresses defenses with layered reads: Mark Andrews working seams, Zay Flowers on motion, Henry setting the hard play-action sell, and Bateman finding soft spots.
The coverage matchup helps his case. Bateman produced a team-high five touchdowns last season versus zone, and Buffalo leaned into zone at a top-eight rate. That structure forces safeties to honor Andrews and Flowers, which tends to give Bateman room to settle into windows on dig and glance variations off run looks. With corner Christian Benford managing health questions late last season, the Bills’ secondary depth bears watching on the final injury report. Even if Benford plays, the Ravens’ ability to flood zones with multiple threats makes Bateman’s route tree relevant inside the 20.
Don’t forget the quarterbacks themselves. Jackson and Allen are usually lined near the top of the anytime market for good reason—they get scripted red-zone carries and scramble equity on broken plays. Their prices are typically shorter than most receivers and hover in the same neighborhood as lead backs. If you’re thinking in terms of market share, every QB keeper that scores is one fewer touchdown available to other skill players, which matters when you’re stacking legs in a same-game parlay.
On the Bills side, the longshot bin is where things get interesting. Ty Johnson, posted around +750, is a classic profile mismatch for how most people think about this market. He scored four times last season—three through the air—and quietly led all NFL running backs in downfield targets. Buffalo used him more late in the year, nearly matching primary back James Cook in certain packages. Against Baltimore’s aggressive front, the Bills may lean on quick-game concepts, angle routes, and screens to slow the rush. That’s Johnson’s lane: fewer carries, more chances to catch a pass with space and a single tackler to beat.
Ray Davis fits a different longshot mold at roughly +550. He projects as the between-the-tackles complement when the Bills roll out heavier personnel or want a hammer on third-and-short. If Buffalo’s offense strings together drives and gets a first-and-goal from the two, Davis’ number is live even on limited snaps. It’s a thinner path than Johnson’s—more game-script dependent, more reliant on the ball landing near the goal line—but the payoff is priced for that uncertainty.
If you’re weighing prices against probabilities, it helps to translate odds. -154 implies around 60.6%; +270 is around 27%; +550 is roughly 15.4%; +750 is about 11.8%. Those numbers don’t account for correlation, which is a big deal in a game like this. For example, a Ravens lead increases Henry’s second-half workload while decreasing Bateman’s chances at a late-game, high-volume passing script. Flip the script—Bills up two scores—and Bateman’s target share jumps while Henry’s touches may skew away from the low-red-zone, clock-killing carries that drive his scoring profile.
As for props stacking, some books have floated enhanced same-game parlay odds, including a Bateman + Ty Johnson two-leg that climbed to around 28-to-1 at one shop. That’s a high-variance ticket. The legs are not tightly correlated—one is a Ravens receiver, one is a Bills rotational back—so the price makes sense. If you insist on building parlays, think about how the game could unfold: who benefits in a shootout, who benefits in a slog, who owns the two-minute drill. Correlation is a feature, not a bug, if you set it on purpose.
There’s also a broader tactical layer. Baltimore under coordinator Todd Monken blends spread principles with heavy personnel looks, forcing defenses to declare coverage and fit the run with light boxes. That’s tailor-made for Henry, but it also creates shot opportunities for receivers off condensed formations—where Bateman has shown timing and trust with Lamar. On the other sideline, Joe Brady’s Bills typically mix tempo with horizontal stretches, then spring Allen on keepers when linebackers overcommit. If the Ravens’ edges get too far upfield, Buffalo will call the quick stuff Johnson can turn into a chunk play.
Injuries and rotations carry weight here. Monitor Baltimore’s offensive line status pregame—Ronnie Stanley’s availability and snap comfort historically affect how the Ravens call protections and play-action depth. For Buffalo, the secondary has juggled pieces, and even a minor downgrade at corner can influence red-zone leverage throws. Actives will also clarify the Bills’ backfield hierarchy behind James Cook. Late-season usage hinted that Johnson had earned the staff’s trust in passing situations, while Davis carved out short-yardage work. Those roles sometimes flip at the goal line, which is why both land in the longshot bucket rather than the middle tier.
Quant models weigh all of this without the narrative frosting. Several simulation sets run thousands of iterations and keep landing in the same neighborhood: Henry and Bateman are the most efficient blends of price and probability on the Baltimore side; Johnson and Davis carry longshot tags but legitimate paths. That squares with the on-field logic—Henry’s goal-line load and past success against Buffalo, Bateman’s zone-beater profile, Johnson’s receiving usage, Davis’ potential to vulture a short one.
One more housekeeping item: this market moves as limits go up on game day. If Henry’s number shortens, it’s a sign of respected money condensing around the chalk. If Bateman drifts, it could be injury noise or simply bettors chasing Zay Flowers or Mark Andrews at better prices. For the Bills, any strong report on snap allocations behind Cook will swing Johnson or Davis by a few ticks. Because touchdowns are scarce events, even tiny changes in projected usage make a real difference.
Finally, zoom out to the full matchup. Baltimore’s defense hunts negative plays, which can shrink the field and generate short drives for their offense—good for Henry’s red-zone volume. Buffalo’s offense prefers pace when it finds a rhythm, which can increase total plays on both sides—good for pass-catchers who need a handful of extra routes to find the paint. The 50.5 total captures both possible scripts: a heavyweight ground attack that squeezes possessions, or a back-and-forth exchange where explosive plays stack up. Either way, the board offers something for different risk appetites—chalk with usage, mid-tier value with role clarity, and longshots with specific, repeatable paths.
As always, lines vary by sportsbook and can move quickly on Sunday. If you care about price, get three numbers in front of you before you commit. And if you’re playing multiple props in one game, write your story first—who leads, who chases, who finishes drives—then let the market tell you whether the price matches the plot.